On the eve of the second anniversary of the Dobbs Supreme Court victory, The New York Times dropped what appears to be troubling news for pro-abortion Democrats who were counting on certain demographics to bail out Biden:
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Almost every path to victory for President Biden relies on strong support from women. But his current standing among women is the weakest lead a Democrat has had since 2004…Mr. Biden’s lead among women has slid to about eight percentage points since the 2020 election, according to an average of more than 30 polls conducted over the last six months and compiled by The New York Times. That’s down from a lead among women of about 13 percentage points four years ago.
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The Times reports that the loss of support “has been particularly pronounced among Black and Hispanic women,” with about six in 10 of these voters in battleground states ranking inflation as their top concern. And, the Times later admits, “abortion-focused voters tend to be younger and whiter than women overall.”
A top Democratic consultant projected confidence nevertheless:
“Once the campaign kicks into high gear, abortion will rally the women,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who has been studying women’s voting behavior for decades. “And as much as Trump wants to right-size himself, he can’t stop himself from bragging about how he overturned Roe v. Wade.”
Lake’s swagger might have something to do with the $100 million being spent by a cadre of pro-abortion lobbying groups to make abortion “more accessible than ever before.” As Politico puts it, the spending blitz is “likely to fuel the perception among conservatives that they are the underdog in the fight.” (At least where spending is concerned, it’s not just a perception! In the 2022 elections, Democrats spent nearly half a billion dollars on abortion-focused ads – outspending the GOP more than 35 to one. And in the most recent constitutional amendment fight in Ohio, pro-life forces were outspent two to one overall.)
But the Democrats’ problem with women didn’t just start this year. In the days immediately after Dobbs, after the leaked draft had been out for more than six weeks, 75% of women in a Harvard-Harris poll agreed with limits on abortion after no more than 15 weeks of pregnancy, compared to 69% of men.
In April 2023, NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist found that 77% of Independent women, 46% of Democrat women and 71% of suburban women would limit abortion to the first three months at most.
And again in 2024, annual Marist polling showed nearly seven in 10 women would limit late-term abortion no later than six months.
Moreover, the Democrats have to contend with a growing number of moms speaking out in favor of life post-Dobbs, such as Neesha and Ashley, whose voices are highlighted by Daily Wire.
Relatedly, when asked if the Biden re-election campaign sees Florida as a battleground state, the chairwoman answered flat-out, “No” – a far cry from the ebullience seen earlier this year.
We do take election year polling with a grain of salt, especially when it comes from left-wing (oops, “nonpartisan”) KFF, whose board includes former President Obama’s controversial HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, former CNN anchor Soledad O’Brien, and pro-abortion Republican/former member of Congress Olympia Snowe, among others.
Still, the Gray Lady’s worries may be just one more point of evidence that fearmongering on abortion isn’t the silver bullet Democrats hope.
LifeNews Note: The column originally apperared at SBA Pro-Life’s Substack.
