Republicans need to net just one seat to bring the composition of the U.S. Senate back to 50-50. In that scenario, the tiebreaker is the Vice President. This adds even more importance to the race for the White House in 2024. However, if Republicans can net two or more seats, they will retake Senate control regardless of who wins the presidential race. Here is an updated look at the Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024:
West Virginia: Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin opted not to run for re-election, leaving one of the reddest states in the country with an open Senate seat in 2024. (Joe Biden did not crack 30% of the vote in West Virginia in 2020.) Current Governor Jim Justice and Congressman Alex Mooney, both of whom have strong pro-life records, are duking it out in the Republican primary. Without a formidable Democrat like Manchin running, the GOP nominee is expected to cruise to an easy win in November, giving the GOP its first flip of the 2024 cycle.
Montana: Pro-abortion Senator Jon Tester (D) is running for re-election in a state that Trump carried by a 16-point margin in 2020. However, in both the 2012 and 2018 cycles, Tester demonstrated that he could win over voters besides fellow Democrats. In 2024, his re-election will hinge upon winning over a sizable number of Trump voters.
Despite Tester’s attempts to portray himself as a moderate, voters should not forget his extreme pro-abortion record. Tester holds a 0% record on National Right to Life’s legislative scorecard. He supports a policy of unlimited abortion for any reason until birth, and he has voted on numerous occasions to use taxpayer dollars to fund abortions. Running for the Republican nomination are Tim Sheehy, a federal contractor and ex-Navy seal, and Brad Johnson, the former Montana Secretary of State.
Ohio: Pro-abortion Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is in a tough fight as he tries to win re-election to the seat he has held since 2007. Once known as the ultimate bellwether state, Ohio has shifted toward Republicans in recent cycles. Trump carried the state by nearly nine points in 2016 and 2020 and Republican Senator JD Vance won his Senate seat by a six-point margin in 2022.
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Challenging Brown are Secretary of State Frank LaRose, entrepreneur Bernie Moreno, and State Senator Matt Dolan. An Emerson College poll of registered voters released in February found Brown in a dead heat against any of the Republican challengers.
Nevada: Pro-abortion Senator Jacky Rosen (D) is running for re-election in a state that has seen nail-biter elections in recent cycles. The Senate race in Nevada was the closest Senate race of the 2022 cycle. While Democrats eked out a win in that race, the Republican gubernatorial candidate Joe Lombardo successfully unseated incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak. In 2020, Joe Biden carried Nevada by a margin of just 2.4%. In short, Nevada is very much in play in 2024. A recent Emerson College poll found GOP frontrunner Sam Brown running neck-and-neck with Rosen.
Arizona: Pro-abortion Senator Kyrsten Sinema, an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats, has not confirmed whether she intends to seek re-election. If she does decide to run, she will find herself in a three-way race. Democrats have largely coalesced behind pro-abortion Congressman Ruben Gallego as their candidate. Former television anchor and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
While Sinema and Gallego support a policy of unlimited abortion for any reason and the use of taxpayer dollars to fund abortions, Lake supports protections for unborn children and their mothers and opposes taxpayer funding of abortion. Polling shows Sinema’s presence in the race would likely benefit Gallego. According to most public polls, Republicans have a better shot at winning the seat in a head-to-head matchup against Gallego rather than a three-way contest with Sinema.
Michigan: Pro-abortion Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow’s retirement leaves open a Senate seat in one of the most competitive battleground states. The odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination is pro-abortion Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin. She received an early endorsement in the race from EMILY’s List, a pro-abortion fundraising giant that backs Democratic women who support unlimited abortion for any reason until birth. Also running is Hill Harper, an actor known for his roles on shows like CSI-NY and The Good Doctor.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, there is a crowded field. Candidates include former Congressman Mike Rogers, physician Dr. Sherry O’Donnell, former Congressman Peter Meijer, and former Congressman Justin Amash. James Craig, the former chief of the Detroit Police Department, is also weighing a bid. Polls show Rogers, the current GOP frontrunner, tied with Slotkin.
Wisconsin: Pro-abortion Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin is running for re-election in a battleground state that may ultimately determine the outcome of the presidential race. With a concentrated focus on Wisconsin from both parties (Republicans will hold their convention in Milwaukee in July), the Wisconsin Senate race will definitely be one to watch. In 2022, Republican Senator Ron Johnson won re-election in Wisconsin by just a 1% margin. Given the partisan breakdown of the state, the 2024 Senate race could be just as close.
The Republican frontrunner is businessman Eric Hovde, who also ran for the seat in 2012. Hovde announced his Senate bid by jumping into an icy Lake Mendota to prove his Wisconsite cred. https://madison.com/eric-
Pennsylvania: Democratic Senator Bob Casey, Jr. is facing the most serious challenge of his Senate career from Republican businessman Dave McCormick. Casey first won the seat in 2006 and two subsequent re-election bids as a self-styled “pro-life Democrat,” capitalizing on the legacy of his father, the late Gov. Bob Casey, Sr. Unfortunately, over the years, Casey capitulated to pro-abortion forces within the Democratic Party.
This culminated in his 2023 vote in favor of the so-called Women’s Health Protection Act, which, if enacted, would enshrine unlimited abortion in federal law and eliminate virtually all state-level protections for unborn children and their mothers, including many of the protections his father had signed into law as Governor of Pennsylvania. While Casey holds a polling advantage, McCormick has proven himself to be an adept fundraiser. Some pundits have speculated that the Pennsylvania Senate race could become the most expensive Senate race of the 2024 cycle.
Maryland: Not usually found on lists of competitive Senate races, traditionally blue Maryland is in play in 2024 following the entrance of popular former Governor Larry Hogan (R) into the race. The seat had been held by pro-abortion Democratic Senator Ben Cardin, who announced his retirement last year. Pro-abortion Congressman David Trone and county executive Angela Alsobrooks, who is backed by EMILY’s List, are competing for the Democratic nomination. Early polls show Hogan running even or within striking range against either Trone or Alsobrooks.
